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US trans-Pacific shipping volumes expected to hit pre-recession peak

US containerised ocean imports and exports in trans-Pacific trade will return to pre-recession levels in 2011 as supply chain managers move from cautious optimism to stronger confidence in demand, experts have predicted.

The Journal of Commerce reports data from its sister company PIERS, forecasting that US container imports from Asia will rise 7.7 % next year to 13.4m 20-foot equivalent units - nearly in line with the 2007 peak of 13.6m Twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Trans-Pacific exports are expected to grow by 4 % to 6.4m TEUs.

The growth follows an estimated 15.5 % increase in US trans-Pacific imports in 2010 and a 4.3 % increase in exports in 2010, according to PIERS.

"Our forecast is positive but moderate," said Mario O. Moreno, economist for PIERS and The Journal of Commerce.

"We look for growth in containerised imports and exports ahead, but there are many risks."

The JoC report goes on to note that, despite "stubbornly high" US unemployment rates, data from the National Retail Federation shows that the 2010 holiday season has surpassed all expectations, with retail sales also on track to reach 2007 peak levels by mid-year.